Japanese Experts Capable to Predict Earthquake

We know that Japan is a country prone to earthquake. On March 11, 2011a magnitude 9 earthquake triggered huge tsunami waves that hit coastal areas. The earthquake that is well-known as Great East Japan Earthquake caused 20.000 people dead and total losses up to 16,9 trillion yen. Until today, recovery process is still on going such as in Minamisanriku.

Japan has a challenge to overcome another big earthquake which possibility is 80%. For 1.400 years, major earthquakes have occurred in estimated of period 100 – 200 year in term of Nankai Trough Fault. It has been over 70 years and the possibility of the next major earthquake to occur in the following 30 years.

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source: EPRC

Japanese researchers from Earthquake Prediction Research Center (EPRC) Earthquake mentioned that the big earthquake predicted can caused dead casualties upnto 323.000 people living in 30 prefectures. The earthquake is predicted due to Trough movement of Nankai Trough Fault. The EPRC researchers have projected pattern of tsunami such as time and heights of coming tsunami.

In post-earthquake of Tohoku or the Great East Japan Earthquake, the researchers are analyzing continuously on potential earthquake at early detection stage. Their research was based on indications of earthquakes that prior happens and the movement of the plates. Based on the analysis results, the researchers EPRC actually want to demonstrate to the government that the potential for a large earthquake will happen soon. However, the devastating earthquake ensued over by the government before the meeting takes place.

Below is a series of tectonic plate movements the noted 46 days before the Great East Japan Earthquake occurred.

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Source: EPRC

EPRC researchers use several types of data to analyze the potential earthquakes, such as seismic data ever recorded, a source of ground water, the milk production of livestock, electromagnetic waves. In addition, the EPRC analysis plate movement using radar image data or synthetic aperture radar (SAR). They use the radar of this type because it can photograph extensively and support the weakness of GPS-based control station. Researchers can access data from GPS satellites and sensors belonging to the United States, Europe, Russia and Japan.

All data collected from different resources are analyzed using an artificial intelligence. Supercomputer and IBM technology are being used to process the data analyzes that afterward to provide information received by everyone using smartphone. At last, there will be International Surface Artificial Communicator or ISACO. We can get information through ISACO mail 1 day before magnitude 5 earthquake occurs. ISACO mail is an automatic program for sending messages.

Through the technology used, the results of the research showed that within 3 years (February 1st, 2013 until January 31, 2016) showed earthquakes with magnitude 6 were recorded 38 times. Precision detected data were 31 times with a percentage of prediction accuracy by 82%, while an earthquake with a magnitude 5 to 5.9 which occurs 192 times and precision were detected 148 or 77% prediction accuracy. EPRC has sent the results of a weekly analysis of 500 companies, local municipalities and embassies since February 2013.

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source: EPRC

With the achievement of this existing technology, we expect the potential for earthquakes in Indonesia can also be predicted. This technology is very supportive in efforts to early warning. However, knowledge on disaster risk and preparedness as a major factor to save ourselves, especially the threat of earthquakes and tsunamis.

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